CMEG Crop Management Extension Group

Field Crop News

Website Address: http://fcn.agronomy.psu.edu/

June 16, 2009    Vol. 09:15

IN THIS ISSUE:

Weather Outlook — Paul Knight, Pennsylvania State Climatologist

The next week will feature more clouds than sun (perhaps >75% cloud cover) with above average rainfall in many sections (greater than an inch), especially in the eastern third of the state. Temperatures will start quite cool on Wednesday, turn warmer by Friday and Saturday and then be cooler for the first half of next week. A marked warming trend is possible later next week.

Cool, moist winds from the southeast will enhance the dampness on Wednesday as many parts of Pennsylvania tally more than a half inch of liquid in 6–10 hours of rain. The cool, damp conditions will be slow to break on Thursday as winds gradually began to blow from the southwest. Much stickier conditions are likely on Friday afternoon into Saturday. A strong disturbance will push a cold front across the region on Saturday, perhaps triggering several severe thunderstorms. Blustery winds from the northwest on Sunday will direct drier air into the state, though it will be noticeably cooler with an abundance of afternoon clouds along with some showers — mainly in the east. Monday will be similar, though brighter. A surge of very warm air will head toward the state later next week.

This warmth during the fourth week of June may last for several days. Odds still favor a bit above average temperatures for June. A notable wet period is possible in the latter half of July or August. The hurricane season should have most of the storms develop after August 20. Very cool conditions are likely during September, with perhaps an unusually early end to the growing season in the northern counties. The development of a weak El Nino conditions in the Pacific portend a wetter winter in the state.

Soybean On Farm Testing Network and Call for Assistance — Del Voight, Interim Grain Crop Specialist

The Pa Soybean board (Represents the Northeast) whom oversees the checkoff program and invests grant monies for research has funded some exciting programs you should be aware of. The Soybean On Farm Testing Network was introduced this year as a method to replicate field research over many locations of Pa that seeks to answer grower questions regarding the production of soybeans. This year there are 8 locations in the state and collectively they have planted different soybean plant populations to determine optimum planting rates for full season soybeans. Growers dropped 140 and 170,000 ppa of soybeans and initial counts are coming in at 110 and 130,000ppa pop up populations. It will be interesting to see the differences as the season progresses.

Another focus area is to determine the spread of bean pod mottle virus. This virus is transmitted by the Bean leaf beetles. The beetles overwinter in Pa as and adult and throughout winter the adults last meal sits in the gut of the insect and in that environment the virus multiplies. In the spring the adults begin feeding on the first emerged soybeans and that the virus laden feces of the adult is deposited on the soybeans and the feeding damage is all that is needed to open the door to have the virus invade the plant. Later in the season the symptoms of crinkled leaves and resulting green stalk and dry pods result. WE NEED YOUR HELP. In many of the network fields there is a lack of BLB. If you have a field that is loaded with BLB we would like to test the field for the presence of the Bean pod virus. Preferably, this testing would be a survey so that we will sample fields from the different production areas of the State.

Please contact one of the following cooperating Extension Agronomists in your area. On Farm Testing Coordinators:

Here is a resource back up if you are not familiar with the BLB, its feeding damage and identification. http://lebanon.extension.psu.edu/Agriculture/Soybeans.htm

Finally another key support of soybean production in the state is the Soybean Yield Contest. This contest seeks to demonstrate high yield soybean farming so that other growers may learn and increase their soybean yields from the knowledge and experience of other producers. The entry form is available on line at http://cornandsoybeans.psu.edu/soybean/yieldindex.cfm. The site also contains the last few years of contest entries and production practices. Also John Yocum did a great job of summarizing the last 16 years of entries into one document at http://www.pasoybean.org/YieldContest/16yearreport.pdf.

Yield Contest Entries: Now is the Time! — H Grant Troop, CPAg/CCA, Park the Plow, Extension Educator, Capital Region

It is time for producers to enter the various yield contests sponsored by a number of our ag organizations. Entry deadlines are fast approaching for those wishing to participate. Entrants benefit from the knowledge gained about the methods involved in high yield crop production. Information gathered and gained by these contests is often used by farmers, agricultural suppliers and extension staff in their development of high yield production strategies that “work”.

Yield contests are sponsored by the PA Corn Growers Association (Five Acre Corn Club) www.pacorngrowers.org , National Corn Growers Association (ten acre entry) ncga.com, many Young Farmer Associations (Five Acre Yield Contest) and PA Soybean Board (Soybean Yield Contest) www.pasoybean.org.

Entry forms are available through county Penn State Extension offices and/or can be downloaded from links on commodity association websites or the Penn State Crop Management Extension Group webpage link at cornandsoybeans.psu.edu. The PA Corn Growers Association has modified their contest rules to make it very easy to enter both the state (PCGA) and national (NCGA) contests with the same field and harvest.

The PA Forage and Grassland Council sponsors a hay contest and forage show at Ag Progress Days in August. Keep that best hay sample handy and place it in the APD/PFGC hay show.

More information about our states commodity and agricultural organizations is available on the PA State Council of Farm Organizations website at http://pscfo.com and county Penn State Extension offices.

Corn Pests and the PA—PIPE System — John Tooker, PSU Entomology Specialist

As we have previously publicized in this Newsletter, the College of Agricultural Sciences at Penn State has been investing in a system that can help predict when certain pest species should be active. The system, known as the PA—PIPE (Pennsylvania Pest Information Platform for Extension and Education), can be accessed through a College website (http://agsci.psu.edu/news/spotlight/pa-pipe) or directly (http://pa-pipe.zedxinc.com/cgi-bin/index.cgi?). A Google search on ‘PA—PIPE’ also easily finds the site.

A look at the maps produced by the PA-PIPE will reveal that two of the biggest pests of corn, European corn borer and western corn rootworm, are active (see Fig. 1 & 2 below). While most of the corn grown in Pennsylvania has transgenic protection against corn borer and/or rootworm, it is good to be aware of the activity of these pests to know when damage might be expected. This issue is particularly true for non-Bt refuges, which can be protected with insecticides should economic thresholds be exceeded; therefore, it would be wise to scout refuges for these pests and their damage. Periodically checking the PA-PIPE system will give growers a sense of how quickly certain pests might be developing and should be a useful tool when trying to time scouting efforts.

PA-PIPE map

Fig. 1. Map for 16 June 2009 of expected development of multivoltine European corn borer.


PA-PIPE map

Fig. 2. Map for 16 June 2009 of expected development of western corn rootworm.

EPA deems Carbofuran Unsafe — John Tooker, PSU Entomology Specialist

Pennsylvania crop growers should be aware that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has determined that carbofuran, the active ingredient in Furadan 4F, is not safe and must be removed from the market. This information has been available elsewhere, but we thought it would be good to mention it here to ensure that our audience is aware of the impending change. Furadan is most commonly used in corn and can be used as a rescue treatment for corn rootworm infestations, so it has been useful in non—Bt refuges. EPA stated that it is “revoking tolerances”…[because]…carbofuran does not meet the safety standard of section 408(b)(2) of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act. “Revoking tolerances” means that the EPA will no longer tolerate crops with carbofuran residues.

For the remainder of 2009, growers can purchase and use carbofuran according to the label, but after January 1, 2010 any crops receiving carbofuran can not be sold legally. For further details, consult the Federal Register: http://www.epa.gov/fedrgstr/EPA-PEST/2009/May/Day-15/p11396.htm

Marketing the 2009 Soft Red Winter Wheat Crop — Issued by Darrel Good, Extension Economist, University of Illinois (Provided by John Berry, Agricultural Marketing Educator, Penn State Cooperative Extension — Lehigh County)

Producers of soft red winter wheat typically deliver a majority of the crop to market at or shortly after harvest. Estimates of monthly marketings provided by the USDA indicate that an average of 62 percent of the crop was sold for delivery in June or July in the five crop years from 2003–04 through 2007–08. An additional 13 percent was sold in August. On average, only 6 percent of the crop was sold after January following harvest. Monthly marketing estimates are not yet available for the 2008–09 marketing year since that year just ended on May 31.

Producers typically do not store much wheat beyond August following harvest because wheat is generally produced in small quantities and does not compete well with farm storage for corn and soybeans. In addition, some commercial storage facilities discourage farmer storage of wheat as well. Selling wheat before, at, or immediately after harvest has been a good marketing strategy since post—harvest price changes, on average, have not covered the full cost of owning and storing wheat. In some years, however, a large carry in the structure of wheat futures prices along with a potential strengthening of the basis encourages storage of the crop. That appears to be the case this year.

Producers may want to closely evaluate the storage decision for the 2009 crop. There may be more potential for post—harvest strengthening of the soft red winter wheat basis due to a much smaller crop than in 2008 and the potential to reduce year—ending inventories. Last month, the USDA projected 2009 soft red winter wheat production potential at 422 million bushels, 192 million smaller than the 2008 crop. Stocks at the end of the 2009–10 marketing year will likely be less than 90 million bushels, compared to an estimated 159 at the beginning of the year. Any further reduction in crop size could reduce inventories even more.

In addition to the potential for basis improvement, the wheat futures market is currently reflecting a large carry. At the close of trade on May 29, September futures settled $.265 above July futures and December futures settled $.225 above September futures. Slightly higher prices were offered through May 2010, with May 2010 futures $.73 above July 2009 futures. The large carry, particularly from July through December, reflects two changes in the specifications of the Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures contract. The bottom line is that producers are faced with a $.50 premium of December 2009 futures over July 2009 futures and a $.64 premium of March 2010 futures over July 2009 futures. The interest cost of holding wheat priced at $5.60 from July to December, at 6 percent interest, is about $.14 and the cost to March 2010 is about $.22. With no improvement in the nearby basis, the carry reflects a return to storage of about $.36 from July to December 2009 and about $.43 from July to March 2010. Basis strengthening, if it occurs, would add to those storage returns. Returns to wheat storage are much larger than currently reflected by the smaller carry in new crop corn futures and the inverted soybean market. Soft red winter wheat producers are facing a favorable pricing scenario heading into harvest, a combination of rising prices and an opportunity to earn a large return from a storage hedge

Will The U.S. Run Out of Soybeans? — Issued by Darrel Good, Extension Economist, University of Illinois (Provided by John Berry, Agricultural Marketing Educator, Penn State Cooperative Extension — Lehigh County)

The short answer to the question about U.S. soybean supplies is “NO”. The important issue is how high prices must be to maintain a minimum level of stocks going into the 2009 harvest. In general, prices will stay high or continue to rise until there is convincing evidence that the pace of consumption has slowed sufficiently to maintain at least a pipeline supply of old crop soybeans.

As the prospects for year ending stocks have been reduced, soybean and soybean product prices have increased in an attempt to slow the pace of consumption. Since early March, July 2009 soybean futures have increased by about $3.70 per bushel, while the average cash price in central Illinois has increased about $3.95 per bushel as the basis strengthened. Over the same period, soybean meal prices have increased a bit more (50 percent) than soybean oil prices (40 percent). In addition, the soybean price structure became strongly inverted, with the premium of July 2009 over November 2009 futures moving from about $.10 to about $2.25. This inversion provides further motivation for users to postpone use to the extent possible.

The market is likely willing to let 2008–09 year ending stocks be reduced to a pipeline level as long as prospects favor a large 2009 U.S. harvest. Those prospects may be boosted by some increase in acreage over that revealed in the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report due to delayed planting of corn and spring wheat. However, yield prospects are obviously uncertain at this point, with late planting in the east adding to yield risk. Pipeline supplies are likely near 4 percent of annual consumption. That would be near 120 million bushels this year. In recent history, stocks were reduced to a low of 112 million in 2003–04, which was 4.5 percent of use that year.

The U.S. will not run out of soybeans prior to the harvest of the 2009 crop. The need to slow the rate of consumption has been well advertised and prices will accomplish the necessary rationing. There are a few indications that rationing has begun, but confirmation is needed. Price strength may also be moderated by the fact that September 1 stocks have a tendency to exceed expectations. Those stocks have exceeded the USDA September projection in 7 of the past 10 years and 10 of the past 15 years. The largest difference was the 65 million bushels last year. That difference resulted in a 90 million bushel increase in the estimated size of the 2007 crop. The change was partially anticipated based on unusually small estimates of residual use in the first three quarters of the year. The bottom line is that producers will want to be ready to move old crop soybeans once the market is satisfied that sufficient rationing has occurred.

Upcoming Events

Register for the Agronomic Weed Control Twilight Tour at Landisville, June 29, 2009

The Second Annual Twilight Weed Tour, Southeast Research and Extension Center (Landisville). Will be held begin at 4:30 pm on June 29, 2009. This is the evening before the “Farming for Success” Field Day on June 30. We will tour the weed control plots from 5:00 to 7:00 pm. You will have an opportunity to examine corn and soybean weed control trials including some cover crop control studies. The format of the program will allow time to view the various treatments /studies and discuss the results with those in attendance. We will finish the evening socializing with one another and enjoying a hot meal.

This event costs $25 per person and includes dinner and educational materials. To register, fill out and send in the form before June 24. Pesticide and CCA credits will be offered. Please contact John Bray or Del Voight at 717-270-4391 in advance if you need additional information.

Register now for Farming for Success Field Day: SE Field Research and Extension Center, Landisville, June 30

Whether you are an experienced crop producer, are interested in learning more about no—till farming systems, or want information on soil quality and fertility, this field day is for you! Come listen to informational speakers, discuss your needs with local Ag industry professionals, or catch a no—till planter demo in the field. The Farming for Success field day is an opportunity not to be missed and it’s here in your backyard! Join us on June 30th and expand your knowledge!

June 30th, 2009 – 8:30am to 4:00 pm

Questions or for sponsorship info: Jeff Graybill, 717–394–6851, jgraybill@psu.edu

Cost: $3.00 Pre—registered (by June 29th) $5.00 At-the-door

Mailed in checks should be made payable to: PSCE Program Fund

To Register: Contact Lancaster County Cooperative Extension 1383 Arcadia Road, Room 140 Lancaster, PA 17601 717-394-6851 LancasterExt@psu.edu (or call 717–394–6851) by noon, June 29th

Register Now for the Rock Springs Agronomy Weed Tour — July 9, 2009

Attend the Annual Agronomic Weed Control Research Tour at Penn State — July 9, 2009 at the Penn State Agronomy Research Farm, Rock Springs, PA (Meet at the Agronomy Farm, Rock Springs, Rt. 45 west of State College, enter Gate D). A number of experiments will be showcased and available for viewing including new corn, soybean, sweet corn, and potato weed control trials. New herbicides include Balance Flexx, the Kixor products (Sharpen, Integrity, and Optill), Corvus, Capreno, Envive, Halex GT, Ignite, Authority Assist and First, Sonic, and Valor XLT to name a few. You will have the opportunity to see Dupont’s GAT corn and potential programs for that. In addition see how the roller/crimper is working on cereal rye and hairy vetch in reduced and no herbicide systems.

Pest Management CCA CEU’s and Pesticide Recertification Credits will be available.

Agenda:

8:30–9:00 am - Registration
9:00 am–12:00 noon - Tour
12:00 noon–1:00 pm - Catered lunch

PreRegistration for this event will be $20.00 and includes lunch and a tour book. Walk-in Registration the day of the event will be $25.00. To register by credit card, go to http://guest.cvent.com/i.aspx?5S,M3,ea617e7d-a373-4a32-8029-ff1a08fb0b49 or contact Lisa Crytser in the Dept. of Crop and Soil Sciences at lac8@psu.edu or 814-865-2543.

Contributors: Extension Educators: Paul Craig (Dauphin), Kevin Fry (Armstrong), Del Voight (Lebanon), H. Grant Troop (Lebanon), Susan Alexander (Jefferson), Mark Madden (Sullivan), Craig Williams (Tioga). Department of Crop & Soil Science: Marvin Hall, Sjoerd Duiker, Department of Entomology: John Tooker, Meteorology: Paul Knight.

Editor:Susan Alexander, Jefferson County

Upcoming Events

Real time pest and heat unit activity: http://agsci.psu.edu/news/spotlight/pa-pipe

Calendar of Events: http://www.events.psu.edu/cgi-bin/cal/webevent.cgi?cmd=opencal&cal=cal209&

If you have any questions or would like to suggest a topic, please contact your local Extension Educator.

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