Field Crop News
Website Address: http://fcn.agronomy.psu.edu/
August 14, 2007 Vol. 07:24
IN THIS ISSUE:
- Weather Outlook
- Market Outlook
- Corn Silage Pricing
- Soybean Rust Update
- Winter Wheat Planning
- Managing Alfalfa During A Drought
- Open Extension Positions
Weather Outlook — Paul Knight, Pennsylvania State Climatologist
With much of the state now under a drought watch due to rainfall deficits of between 1 and 6 inches, the weather pattern shows signs of relaxing from persistently dry regime to one that favor rain in western sections of the state. Unfortunately, the very dry areas of south—central and southeastern Pennsylvania may miss the beneficial rains expected late this coming weekend and early next week. The coolest weather since early July is likely at the end of this week and another spell of hot weather is likely by the following weekend.
Week One (Aug 14–21): Very warm and more humid air will attempt a return at mid—week producing a scattering of thunderstorms either Wednesday night or Thursday, mainly in the western half of the state. A sharp cold front will trigger some thunderstorms late Thursday or early Friday before a very cool, dry air mass moves into the region for the start of the weekend. Morning readings will reach the 40’s in the northern half of the state. A disturbance will likely bring clouds and showers to the region as early as Sunday afternoon and lasting into Tuesday. Odds favor the western and southern sections to see the most rain, but there are indications that the rain may stay too far south.
Week Two (Aug 22–29): A steady warming trend is likely during this period culminating in a spell of hot, humid conditions centered during the following weekend. Afternoon thundershowers will develop late in the week in the sultry air mass. One ‘wild card’ is the expected path and remnants of what is expected to be the first hurricane of the season. The storm will probably track through the Caribbean and enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week. There is a chance that the remnants of the storm could move north and the east through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys during the second half of next week.
Check out the predicted Growing Degree Days (base 55) for Pennsylvania for the next two weeks at: http://climate.met.psu.edu/data/regional_gdd.php
Market Outlook — Tom Murphy, Lycoming County Extension
The Board price for corn has continued in a relatively sideways pattern for the past week with some small up and down movement. The weather for much of the corn growing portions of the nation is looking favorable as of today and price moved south for corn as an outcome. USDA is now predicting the largest corn crop ever at somewhere near 13.1 billion bushels or 152.8 bushels per acre. Although many areas of the eastern corn belt are in bad shape, nationally the crop is looking good. The overall corn crop rating for the week was unchanged in the latest crop report on Monday. Corn for feed usage is up, partially due to high wheat prices preventing much of that crop from going to livestock usage. Exports are also trending up. There is also some industry speculation about U.S. corn going to South America to replace some of their non—GMO stocks being contracted to European markets. (It’s amazing what the right price and a BIG boat will allow you to do!) In PA we are still in the drought mode and much of the crop looks pretty rough in all corners of the state except the southeast. Last year’s crop is still selling in the low $4.00 range in most of the state. Soybeans are in a similar situation. Weather improved this week, and the price gave up most of last weeks gains for new crop beans. They have been trending upward recently though. Drivers have been the alternative fuel demands for biodiesel and the increasing demand globally for plant oils. Production of oilseeds in several key areas of the world have had production troubles this season, namely eastern Europe, parts of Canada, and China. Early predictions are for China to need to increase imports of soybeans by ~20% over last year.
And I mentioned last week about the situation with hay needs in PA this winter feeding season. More reports from colleagues around the State confirm the increasing demand for a limited PA crop. If you will need supply this winter, it would be a good idea to identify sources sooner then later even if you don’t want to lock in on the tonnage amounts until you see how you final cuttings materialize.
Lastly, I read a very interesting article in the most recent Doane’s newsletter referencing a Consumer Federation of America (CFA) report dealing with the production of biofuels in the U.S. and the Big Oil’s interest in reducing refinery capacity. I have followed the story for about a month or so on the planned reduction of petroleum refinery capacity domestically that would correspond with the ramp—up of liquid biofuels for transportation fuel in the U.S. Seems to be a sizeable amount of political posturing occurring between different sides in the energy markets. I would encourage you to stay appraised of the story due to the impact it has on you as a grower of these biofuel feedstocks, as well as, consumer of vehicle fuel. This article can be viewed in entirety at www.doane.com. The Wall Street Journal has had some related stories recently which you can find with a quick search on their home page.
| Grain | Range | Avg | Contract for Harvest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn No. 2 | 3.95-4.20 | 4.07 | 3.50-3.51 |
| Wheat No. 2 | 5.92-6.42 | 6.16 | 5.09-5.19 |
| Barley No. 3 | 2.80-3.15 | 2.95 | 2.50 |
| Oats No. 2 | 2.60 | 2.60 | --- |
| Soybeans No. 2 | 8.02-8.30 | 8.15 | 8.22-8.32 |
| *Gr. Sorghum | --- | --- | --- |
| Ear Corn | 105.00-118.00 | 112.00 | --- |
| Grain | Range | Avg |
|---|---|---|
| Corn No. 2 | 3.60-4.03 | 3.79 |
| Wheat No. 2 | 5.62-6.00 | 5.81 |
| Barley No. 3 | --- | --- |
| Oats No. 2 | 1.75-2.50 | 2.02 |
| Soybeans No. 2 | 7.67-7.75 | 7.71 |
| Ear Corn | 115.00 | 115.00 |
| Grain | Range | Avg |
|---|---|---|
| Corn No. 2 | 3.80-4.20 | 3.92 |
| Wheat No. 2 | 4.90-5.50 | 5.32 |
| Barley No. 3 | 2.80-3.10 | 3.02 |
| Oats No. 2 | 2.50-2.60 | 2.52 |
| Soybeans No. 2 | 7.60-8.00 | 7.73 |
| *Gr. Sorghum | --- | --- |
| Ear Corn | 105.00-120.00 | 118.00 |
| Grain | Range | Avg |
|---|---|---|
| Corn No. 2 | 3.90-4.18 | 4.02 |
| Wheat No. 2 | 6.17 | 6.17 |
| Barley No. 3 | 2.60-2.90 | 2.80 |
| Oats No. 2 | 2.30-2.45 | 2.38 |
| Soybeans No. 2 | 7.90-8.50 | 8.15 |
| Ear Corn | 105.00-119.00 | 114.00 |
Corn Silage Pricing — Tim Beck, Cumberland Co. Extension
When attempting to price corn silage there are several methods that have been used to arrive at silage values. Many issues need to be addressed in a pricing system including: the amount of grain development in the crop; the dry matter of the standing crop; drought impacts on the crop; storage, hauling and shrink charges; silage processing, differences in the digestibility of corn hybrids; and the conservation and nutrient value of corn stover. The cost of inoculants applied to the silage would need to be considered along with the quality of the corn processing used. When prices are quoted in the marketplace it’s often unclear how many of these issues have been considered. More research is needed to develop a method for pricing silage that adequately addresses the most important variables.
Two pricing methods are commonly used: calculating the silage price based on substitute forage prices and computing the value based upon the price of shelled corn.
The first method uses the price of other grass hay on a dry matter basis and takes 75% of that value to arrive at the price of corn silage. The formula for this calculation is: (Other grass hay per ton/.90 dry matter) x .75 x (Dry Matter of Corn Silage/100). Reference prices for current Pennsylvania markets may be found on the Penn State Feed Price List at: http://www.das.psu.edu/pdf/feedprices.pdf. As an example, with grass hay at $132 per ton and corn silage at 33% dry matter, this would suggest corn silage would be ($132/.9) x .75 x (33/100) = $36 per ton. When considering this price, it’s vital to realize this is the price of the silage coming out of the storage structure, not the standing crop price. There are several discounts needed to get back to the field price including: (1) shrink due to fermentation losses that can be as high as 10%, (2) the cost of storage including plastic costs for covers or bags (potentially $1 per ton), and (3) chopping, hauling and processing costs. PA custom rates lists this value at $9.20 per ton for the state average. More information on these costs may be found in the PA Custom rates publication at: http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Pennsylvania/Publications/Machinery_Custom_Rates/custom06.pdf
A second method would be to use the price of dry shelled corn times a factor of 8. At $4 corn grain, this would suggest a price of $32 per ton of silage. Others use a factor of 9 that arrives at a price of $36 per ton of corn silage. This price would need to have the same adjustments applied as above, to arrive back at the field level price for the silage. Historical references suggest a factor of 6 times dry shelled corn should be used for drought—stressed corn plus $3–4 per ton for harvest and storage. So, drought—stressed corn with minimal grain would be worth $24/ton if shelled corn was $4 per bushel.
The $3 to $4 adjustment for harvest and storage was made before processors, so it is too low when processing is used. Based on the custom rates value, processing may add another $5 per ton for a total adjustment for chop, process, haul, fill and pack of $9 per ton.
Since these adjustments vary by farm and the number of crop operations included in the price, it’s critical to consider the costs on your farm. In our example, these adjustments amount to nearly $14 per ton off the finished silage price to arrive at the value of the standing crop. Each producer will need to calculate this adjustment based on the harvest and storage methods used, storage losses and storage costs on their farm.
After using one of these methods to arrive at a price per ton for the corn silage, it’s important to consider how fermentation may have been affected by the dry matter and energy value of the corn silage. This is especially true for drought—stressed crops. Drought—stressed corn silage may have reduced energy value, or harvesting too wet or too dry may also have affected fermentation. Virginia Ishler and George Greaser developed a table of discounts based on dry matter and Net Energy of lactation for corn silage. Access a copy of this spreadsheet at: http://www.das.psu.edu/dairynutrition/forages/ (click the link “Enterprise budget, breakeven tables and pricing for corn grain and silage”). Put in the value per ton of finished silage from above, apply a Net Energy of Lactation value you want to consider for the silage and the program will suggest discounts based on dry matter and energy value of the silage. Adjustments to these values would then need to be applied to arrive at a standing crop price.
Soybean Rust Update — Greg Roth, Grain Production Specialist
The risk of soybean rust continues to be very low. Detections from the southeast are low with none reported in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Rust detections this year are more prevalent in Texas and are now showing up in Oklahoma and Arkansas and Louisiana. We are continuing to assess the soybean sentinel plots throughout Pennsylvania and are beginning to find Septoria Brown Spot, Frog—eye Leaf Spot, and Downy Mildew at generally low levels. We are also finding evidence of two other diseases at low levels, Cercospora Leaf Blight and Alternaria Leaf Spot. The pathogen that causes Cercospora Leaf Blight (Cercospora kikuchii) is also the causal agent of Purple Seed Stain. Alternaria is not of major importance, but can lead to seed decay.
Time to Plan for Winter Wheat Planting — Greg Roth, Grain Production Specialist
Favorable winter wheat prices and the traditional drought tolerance of winter wheat have justifiably increased interest in planting wheat this year. Now is the time to begin planning for a high yielding crop. Much of the yield potential of a wheat crop is set at planting so decision making now is critical.
One critical step is to select a high yielding wheat variety. Evaluate performance trials from our program (http://smallgrains.psu.edu/) as well as surrounding states in conjunction with recommendations from your seed suppliers. A second issue is to plant the crop just after the Hessian fly free dates for your area (http://agguide.agronomy.psu.edu/cm/sec7/sec74c.cfm) at a plant population of 1.2 to 1.5 million seeds per acre. That translates into 16 to 20 seeds per foot of row in 7 inch rows. If seedbed conditions are uneven, I prefer to err on the high side of the range to compensate for lower emergence. Take time to adjust the drill to seed at 1 to 1.5 inches deep. Also, remember to plan to meet the nutrient requirements of the crop. High yielding wheat and a crop of straw removes considerable nutrients and the benefit of the P and K are maximized in the fall. We estimate that 0.8 lbs of P2O5 and 1.8 lbs of K2O are removed in the grain and straw per bushel of wheat yield. Including 20 pounds of N with the fertilizer can stimulate fall tillering and reduce the need for early topdressing in late winter, especially in fields where residual N levels are low. Another consideration is to destroy volunteer small grains (like oats) at least two weeks before seeding wheat to avoid a “green bridge” that can provide a host for insect pests that can transmit virus diseases to the succeeding wheat crop.
Managing Alfalfa During and Following a Drought — Marvin Hall, PSU Forage Specialist
Alfalfa in some areas of Pennsylvania is experiencing drought stress and the question of alfalfa management during this time is being raised. But before we discuss the management of drought—stressed alfalfa, lets look at how alfalfa responds to drought conditions.
Alfalfa is commonly referred to as a drought tolerant plant. During the onset of drought conditions, alfalfa will stop using carbohydrates for stem and leaf production and store those carbohydrates in the roots. This provides high levels of root carbohydrates for long term survival if drought conditions persist and the leaves become photosynthetically inactive. However, alfalfa’s ability to survive a drought does not mean that alfalfa will not show drought related symptoms. Water—stressed alfalfa will experience decreased stem elongation and in some cases mature more rapidly. Leaf production is less effected by water stress than stem elongation. This results in higher forage quality of water—stressed plants than their unstressed counterparts.
To Harvest or Not to Harvest?
The primary criterion influencing the decision to harvest drought—stressed alfalfa should be based on the cost of harvesting and the value of the forage. The alfalfa plants may look weak and severely stressed during a drought; however, harvesting at the stage of plant development when you would normally harvest is recommended as long as adequate alfalfa is present to justify the cost of harvesting. The plant, even though it may be very short, will already have stored more than enough root carbohydrates to ensure survival if the drought persists or support regrowth if sufficient rains remove the drought conditions.
Open Extension Positions
Vacancy Announcement
Position Title: Fixed—Term Agri—energy Economic Development Educator
Location: Westmoreland County Cooperative Extension
214 Donohoe Road, Suite E
Greensburg, PA 15601
Brief Description of Duties: This position is co—funded between Penn State and Westmoreland County through the Westmoreland Extension Association. The individual will be based at the Westmoreland Extension Office and will be responsible for the coordination of educational programs in the broad area of bio based energy. The individual will function as a team member to develop and deliver extension education programs addressing bio—based energy opportunities, energy conservation and economic development initiatives in agri—energy. In carrying out the assigned duties, the individual is responsibility to the County Extension Director in Westmoreland County and the Southwest Regional Director.
Specific Program Responsibilities Include:
- Identify problems, opportunities and educational needs of people to enhance public understanding of renewable energy, energy conservation and bio-based energy production.
- Develop funding streams that will enhance program delivery, lead to the sustainability of renewable energy program and foster development of a bio—based energy industry in Westmoreland County.
- Develop educational programs in cooperation with extension staff, faculty and Penn TAP. In addition, foster working relationships with key individuals, agencies and organizations which further program objectives.
- Serve as educational process specialist in aiding people in the development of economic opportunities in the renewable energy field.
- Ensure compliance with the affirmative action plan. Through public notification and “All Reasonable Efforts”, make programs accessible to clientele without regards to race, color, national origin, religion, sex, sexual orientation, age or handicap.
- Utilize technology to market, conduct and evaluate programs.
- Develop personal plan of action, program accomplishment and other administrative reports as appropriate. Serve on appropriate regional and state committees as assigned.
- Perform other duties and responsibilities as assigned by the county extension director and regional director.
Qualifications: Preference will be given to candidates who have one or more degrees in Environmental Resources Management, Agricultural or Environmental Engineering or Environmental Sciences. Candidates who have experience working with community leaders and public policy education are encouraged to apply. A Master’s degree is preferred. Candidates must possess teaching, program development and evaluation skills, and demonstrate positive human relations and effective communication skills.
Minimum Starting Salary: Salary is commensurate with education and experience.
Westmoreland County Cooperative Extension are units of Penn State and as such offers a competitive and liberal benefits package. Application and a detailed announcement are available by writing or calling the Office of Human Resources, 307 Agricultural Administration Building, University Park, PA 16802; telephone 814–863–3452; Fax 814–863–6215.
Vacancy Announcement— York County Soil & Nutrient Management Educator
Penn State Cooperative Extension is accepting applications for an individual to provide programming in the broad areas of nutrient management education, soil quality and soil health, basic physical and chemical properties of soils, and agronomic application of organic residuals. A bachelor’s degree is required. Preference will be given to candidates who have one or more degrees in agronomy, soil science, or related field and are eligible as a certified crop advisor. Master’s degree preferred. Applications and a detailed announcement are available by writing, calling or emailing bss1@psu.edu, Human Resource Services, 307 Agricultural Administration Building, University Park, PA 16802; telephone 814–863–3452; FAX 814–863–6215. The closing date for accepting resumes and applications is August 24, 2007, or until a suitable candidate has been selected. Penn State is committed to affirmative action, equal opportunity and the diversity of its workforce.
Contributors: Dept. Crop & Soil Science: Marvin Hall, Doug Beegle and Dwight Lingenfelter. Extension Educators: Andrew Frankenfield (Montgomery County), Mark Madden (Bradford County), Lee Miller (Mercer County), John Rowehl (Cumberland County), Tom Murphy (Lycoming County).
Editor:Tom Murphy, Lycoming County
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